I am probably getting rid of what little credibility that this blog has given me by posting this. Trying to guess Oscars this early is like finding a needle in the haystack but since I am film obssessed its a fun exercise and a challenge to go see the movies. (The winners are in red)
The Lovely Bones, Nine, The Human Factor, Shutter Island, An Education
I feel like Nine and Lovely Bones are but locks just on their casts alone. Each director has had a best picture winner so the technical qualities should be good. The Human Factor=Clint+Morgan Freeman+Matt Damon+sports story (which they occasionally reward aka Hoosiers, Chariots of Fire). I am slightly iffy on An Education but there always seems to be an indie that sneaks in and Shutter Island seems so intriguing and Scorsese does well with complex material. But watch out for Avatar, every once in a while a revolutionary sci-fi epic gets in (Blade Runner, LOTR trilogy).
Others to consider: Public Enemies, Precious, The Tempest, Avatar, The Last Station, Tree of Life, The Hurt Locker, The Road, Taking Woodstock
Best Director:
Martin Scorsese, Shutter Island
Clint Eastwood, The Human Factor
Rob Marshall, Nine
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
James Cameron, Avatar
While I want to include Zack Snyder for his take on Watchmen, there is only SO much sci-fi the Academy can take (its a superhero movie lets not kid ourselves) and from what I am hearing about Avatar, James Cameron may get a nom. I think Rob Marshall will take it home because last time he had a good musical, he lost for Chicago. The dark horse maybe Lee Daniels. This may become obsolete, as there are many women vying for these spots as well (and its a good thing!)
Others to consider: Katheryn Biglow, Mira Nair, Lone Scherfig, Julie Taymor, Michael Mann, Ang Lee (he can do anything), Lee Daniels, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Best Actor:
Morgan Freeman, The Human Factor
Johnny Depp, Public Enemies
Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
Javier Bardem, Bitiful
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Morgan Freeman is all but guaranteed a nomination by virtue of the character he is playing. Leonardo was snubbed for Revolutionary Road in favor of a CGI Brad Pitt and if he is good in this he will get a makeup nod. Johnny Depp can do anything and get a nomination (Pirates of the Carribean) and I think Javier has a shot. Daniel Day Lewis is one of the best actors alive but the academy rarely rewards him in “romantic” movies. I personally would love to see Matt Damon get a nom but these five will do for now.
Others to consider: Peter Sarsgard (An Education), Matt Damon (The Informant), Mark Wahllberg (The Lovely Bones)
Best Actress:
Hillary Swank, Amelia
Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri
Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Natalie Portman, Brothers
How can we assume Hillary won’t be trying for her 3rd Oscar? She is in the same boat as Morgan Freeman. I like Michelle, its nice to see her get some good material. I am not too sure about this category but Natalie Portman was excellent in Closer and this is a mature role. Carey is getting good press at the moment and Saorise already has one nomination…
Others to consider: Emily Watson (Within the Whirlwind), Romola Garai (1939), Halle Berry (Frankie and Alice), Hellen Mirren (Love Ranch), Robin Wright Penn (The Private Lives of Pippa Lee)
Supporting Actor:
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
James McAvoy, The Last Station
Mark Ruffalo, Shutter Island
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road
Matt Damon, The Human Factor
I think this might be the year for monsters in the supporting category as Stanley is playing the killer in the Lovely Bones. James McAvoy is a very good actor due some love and can Mark Ruffalo PLEASE get some acknowledgement. I think Matt Damon will have an easier time getting nominated in a Clint prestige picture than a Soderberg satire. Every so often a child gets nominated, well it does happen rather frequently, so Kodi has a good chance but does The Road being pushed back a year mean anything? Personally, I would love to see Jonathan Groff.
Others to consider: Alfred Molina (An Education), Billy Crudup (Public Enemies), Robert Downey Jr. (The Soloist), Johnathan Groff (Taking Woodstock)
Supporting Actress
Mo’Nique, Precious
Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones
Emily Mortimer, Shutter Island
Judi Dench, Nine
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Others to consider: Kathy Bates (Cheri), Patricia Clarkson (Whatever Works), Michelle Williams (Shutter Island), Susan Surandon (The Lovely Bones), anyone from NINE really…
You know you live in a changing world when Mo’Nique is going to get an Oscar. I hope she does, the reviews for her performance have been some of the best I have ever read for a film. Rachel is playing traditional Oscar bait (grieving mother) in a prestige film. Meryl could practically wear a bag over her head for a movie and get a nomination so Julia Child shouldn’t be hard as she looks fantastic in the trailer. Emily Mortimer is playing a mentally unstable serial killer in a Scorsese film, check and check. Judi Dench is only there because she has one of the best songs in the musical and the academy LOVES her but she is really interchangeable with anyone (Penelope, Nicole, Marion C., Fergie even…)
Techs
Avatar and Transformers will clean house
Animated Feature
Up, its really not a contest when Pixar makes a movie…
Screenplays
Who knows… Whatever Works (Woody Allen) and The Lovely Bones (Peter Jackson)