I think it was important to update this list one last time since the BFCA and Golden Globes have happened so here we go:
Best Picture
The Social Network
The King’s Speech
The Town
Toy Story 3
Inception
Winter’s Bone
The Kid’s Are Alright
True Grit
The Fighter
Black Swan
Analysis: The Social Network is the clear front runner but The King’s Speech could pull the upset. The more interesting battle is going to be for those 9th and 10th slots. I have moved The Town in over 127 Hours due to the fact that that it was a pretty big hit and box office could propel it into the conversation.
Dark Horses: 127 Hours, Another Year, Shutter Island,
Best Director
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
Analysis: This group has been nominated for everything and should represent the Oscar line up. David Fincher is going to win though.
Dark Horses: The Coen Bros (True Grit), Roman Polanski (The Ghost Writer), Danny Boyle (127 Hours)
Best Actor
James Franco (127 Hours)
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
Analysis: The top four on this list are pretty much assured nominations due to buzz, likability, left over good will from past runs…anyways the battle for that 5th slot much like the Best Actress category is up for grabs. Due to the publicity grabbing nature of the film (previously rated NC-17), that Ryan Gosling will get in. But I have like 1% confidence in this pick, because any of the men in the dark horse category can thieve his spot. I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked if Duvall and Bardem (acting greats with popular fans) or Mark (best picture hopeful) took that spot.
Dark Horses: Robert Duvall, Javier Bardem, Mark Walberg, Paul Giamatti
Best Actress
Annette Benning (The Kid’s Are All Right)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Hailee Stienfeld (True Grit)
Analysis: I think that the top 4 are locked and loaded for nominations. The 5th slot is the real wild card. Any of the ladies listed in the dark horse category could get that 5th slot as they all have avid fan bases. However, I see Hailee from True Grit getting in simply because her film was such a hit and there is precedence of the Academy reversing category fraud (Kate Winslet, Kiesha Castle-Hughes). This would be the biggest shock of Oscar morning.
Dark Horses: Julianne Moore, Michelle Williams, Tilda Swinton
Best Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
Barbara Hershey (Black Swan)
Jackie Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Analysis: This is perhaps the most volatile category, the top 3 women are locked in (although I would be happy if Helena wasn’t nominated as her role isn’t that challenging.) Due to Hailee going lead, that leaves the last 2 spots open to be filled. While Mila has been reaping a large share of the nominations, I don’t see her getting the Oscar nom. That would go to her highly respected co-star Barbara Hershey, whose role requires a little more acting rather than just delicious line readings. That final spot could go to anyone but I think the critical fave Jackie Weaver can get in.
Dark Horses: Mila Kunis, Lesley Manville, Hailee Stienfeld, Olivia Williams
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Geofrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kid’s Are All Right)
Analysis: This has been the line up for much of the awards season and I don’t see it changing. HOWEVER, if the Academy falls in love with The Social Network I could see Armie Hammer or Justin Timberlake sneak in. Justin has the showy role and celeb status, but Armie is the hot new actor and he had to play two roles. John Hawkes could also slip in if Winter’s Bone has a good showing. Christian Bale is going to win so idk if there’s even reason to postulate on the nominees.
Dark Horses: John Hawkes, Armie Hammer, Justin Timberlake, Bill Murray
Best Animated Feature
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Dark Horses: Despicable Me, The Illusionist
Best Original Screenplay
Inception
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kings Speech
The Kid’s Are All Right
Dark Horses: Another Year, Blue Valentine
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
Winter’s Bone
Rabbit Hole
True Grit
Dark Horses: The Ghost Writer, 127 Hours, The Town, Shutter Island