Top 20 Movies with (Best Picture) Oscar Potential
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I try so hard sometimes not to think about the Oscars, but their pull is just too strong. After a very interesting film year in which we saw a French nearly silent comedy win Best Picture I had to take a gander at what this year would have in store for us. Remember these are sight unseen choices, they just seem like the type of films that might be in the mix. I’ve also included possible nominations in case you wanted to start making predictions (Lord its early).
Anna Karenina dir. Joe Wright
Anna Karenina dir. Joe Wright
Why: It’s an adaptation of a super famous novel and all the other elements are there: period piece, great actors in Jude Law and Kiera Knightley, plus Joe Wright is directing and he’s due for a nomination.
Why Not: As an obvious front runner, it will have to dodge many bullets. Atonement couldn’t even net Joe Wright a directing nomination.
Nominations: Picture, Director, Actress (Knightley), Supporting Actor (Law, Johnson), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Art Direction, Score, Makeup
Argo dir. Ben Affleck
Why: Ben Affleck has really found his niche as a director and has assembled a heck of a cast or this hostage rescue mission film. The Acadeemy likes actors who direct good movies so if it’s a hit watch out.
Why Not: They still haven’t warmed completely to Ben as evidenced by The Town only getting two nominations. This also his first film away from his native Boston, will it show?
Nominations: Picture, Director, Actor (Affleck), Supporting Actor (Cranston, Welliver, Chandler), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Score
Beasts of the Southern Wild dir. Ben Zeitlin
Why: It was the Sundance darling and if it’s a critical cause it could go far. It’s a weird enough film to stick out amongst the standard fare.
Why Not: It’s a small film coming out during the summer gluttony of films. Might get lost in the shuffle.
Nominations: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Film Editing, Score, Visual Effects
Brave
Why: Pixar (with the exceptions of the Cars films) always puts out a quality film. It’s their first female protagonist.
Why Not: It’s animated and there are no guaranteed 10 nominations.
Nominations: Picture, Animated Feature, Original Screenplay, Score, Sound Mixing
Django Unchained dir. Quentin Tarantino
Why: It’s Tarantino and he’s doing an homage to spaghetti Westerns. So many good actors and some interesting subject matter, will keep it in the conversation.
Why Not: It’s a spaghetti Western about slavery, not exactly traditional Academy fare. And while Inglorious Basterds got a ton of nominations, it ended with them killing Hitler. Will this film have that kind of revenge aspect?
Nominations: Picture, Director, Actor (Waltz, Foxx), Supporting Actor (DiCaprio), Supporting Actress (Washington), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Film Editing, Score, Makeup
The Dark Knight Rises dir. Christopher Nolan
Why: The 2nd film was one of the catalysts (rumored) to change the Academy’s voting rules. That plus what is sure to be an enormous gross will only help in it’s quest for nominations. This would be a nice way for the Academy to shake off the out of touch sentiments they’ve been getting. Though the quality of the Batman films plotwise can be a mess, the technical qualities of this film won’t be denied.
Why Not: Even with the possibility of 10 nominees, I still don’t see this getting the number 1 votes needed to place amongst the top films. Remember the majority of this voting body is 62 yr old men. Plus, there’s no Heath Ledger villain/death to give the WANT TO to voters to vote for these films.
Nominations: Picture, Director, Cinematography, Art Direction, Score, Editing, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Makeup
The Gangster Squad dir. Ruben Fleischer
Why: Well made movies about (white) gangsters and corrupt cops have always done well with the Academy. When you combine that with a starry cast containing Sean Penn, Josh Brolin, Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, Anthony Mackie and Frank Grillo you have a movie screaming Oscar.
Why Not: Too much of a good thing? Will any element of this stick? Above all this was directed by the man who made Zombieland, not exactly the “Oscar director” type.
Nominations: Picture, Director, Actor (Penn, Brolin, Gosling), Supporting Actor (Anthony Mackie), Supporting Actress (Emma Stone), Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Film Editing, Score, Makeup, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing
Gravity dir. Alfonso Cuaron
Why: Sci-fi films have made headway with the Academy and they’ve always acknowledged the revolutionary ones. All of the talk about how this film is using such advanced technology that even James Cameron wasn’t sure it could work, that alone would be worth going to this movie.
Why Not: Movies about being in space can be thrilling, or REALLY boring. Word is there will be long stretches of silence, and with just Sandra on screen, will that be enough to keep our attention?
Nominations: Picture, Director, Actress (Bullock), Supporting Actor (Clooney), Cinematography, Art Direction, Film Editing, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing
The Great Gatsby dir. Baz Luhrmann
Why: Adaptations of classic novels are right in the Academy’s wheelhouse and Baz’s films are always interesting to say the least. All of the roles seem to be cast perfectly and the first picture look very nice.
Why Not: The other Gatsby adaptations have not fared the best past the technical categories. To tell you the truth, this is one book that doesn’t translate well to screen. Also, why on God’s green earth is this being filmed in 3D?
Nominations: Picture, Director, Actor (DiCaprio, McGuire), Actress (Mulligan), Supporting Actor (Edgerton), Supporting Actress (Fisher), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Film Editing, Score, Visual Effects, Makeup
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journal dir. Peter Jackson
Why: You remember those LOTR movies? They were pretty good. The same team is back for this film and the trailer was very beautiful.
Why Not: “Been There, Done That” syndrome.
Nominations: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Film Editing, Score, Makeup, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects
Hyde Park on Hudson dir. Roger Michell
Why: It sounds like a juicy soap opera (wife finds out about President’s affair with cousin) wrapped in a period piece (it’s about FDR). There are so many “overdue” actors in the movie (Bill Murray, Laura Linney) that the movie will be sure to stay in the conversation.
Why Not: Well other than the fact that this sounds like an HBO movie put on the big screen, it will have to find a way to be an exciting period piece, no small feat.
Nominations: Picture, Actor (Murray), Actress (Linney), Supporting Actress (Williams), Adapted Screenplay, Art Direction, Score
Inside Llewyn Davis dir. The Coens Bros.
Why: The Academy has accepted the Coens and with nostalgia rampant in today’s culture, their looks at 60s NYC music scene could hit home. With Oscar Isaac, Carey Mulligan and Justin Timberlake as leads, we can be sure to hear some great singing and fun acting.
Why Not: Aside from the fact it might not come out this year, we’ve seen the Academy reject the Cohen’s when they skew too hip (The Big Lebowski, Burn After Reading). Also
Nominations: Picture, Director, Actor (Isaacs), Supporting Actor (Timberlake, Hedlund), Supporting Actress (Mulligan), Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Original Song, Sound Mixing
Les Miserables dir. Tom Hooper
Why: Megahit musical+period piece+Oscar Winning Director (Tom Hooper)+Hugh Jackman Russell Crowe, and Anne Hathaway+a cast that can actually sing (!)=the presumed front runner at the moment
Why Not: While it is a beloved musical, it is also an EXTREMELY long one and a period piece. Will the audience turn out? Can the actors sing live as they’re rumored to be asked to? Also, Hooper backlash and general dislike of musicals.
Nominations: Picture, Director, Actor (Jackman), Supporting Actor (Crowe, Redmayne, Tveit), Supporting Actress (Hathaway, Seyfried), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Film Editing, Original Song, Sound Mixing, Makeup
Life of Pi dir. Ang Lee
Why: Children’s book adaptations are all the rage these days and this is a really great complex story. Ang Lee is a master and this is his first movie since 2007.
Why Not: Even with some tough subject matter, this is still a story geared at children. It will also have to deal
Nominations: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Irrfan Kahn), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Film Editing, Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects
Lincoln dir. Steven Spielberg
Why: Um it’s Spielberg directing a passion project about our “greatest” president with Oscar winners and nominees both in front and behind the camera.
Why Not: I don’t see anything going wrong other than Spielberg backlash and maybe how it handles slavery.
Nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress (Field), Supporting Actor (Gordon-Levitt, Jones), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Film Editing, Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Makeup
The Master dir. Paul Thomas Anderson
Why: Any PTA movie is a thing to behold and this film as a thinly veiled examination of Scientology should be good. Paul always brings out the best in his actors and he’s got Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Amy adams, and Joaquin Phoenix in tow.
Why Not: Will it come out this year? Will it be exciting? There Will Be Blood was a titanic film, can PTA and PSH bring the same level of gravitas?
Nominations: Picture, Director, Actor (Hoffman), Supporting Actor (Phoenix), Supporting Actress (Adams), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Film Editing, Score
On the Road dir. Walter Salles
Why: This novel is a generational touchstone and if adapted properly could tickle the nostalgia of the 62 yr old Academy member who wants to look cool again. The trailer gave off a really fun, jazzy feel and road trip movies can be such fun. The cast is a great mix of rising stars and veterans who should be at the top of the game
Why Not: Road trip films can also be incredibly repetative. How will the young (many will say unproven) actors handle this material? This film has been on the shelf for a long time as well; sign of weakness?
Nominations: Picture, Director, Actor (Riley, Hedlund), Supporting Actress (Stweart, Dunst), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Film Editing, Score
This is Forty dir. Judd Apatow
Why: Eventually a Judd Apatow film will get widespread Academy love. People loved these two characters from Knocked Up and movies regarding characters with marital problems can sometimes strike a cord with the Academy. Plus it’s got one of the most interesting supporting casts he’s ever assembled.
Why Not: This is still a comedy and we know how those go over with the Academy. Will this film still contain the raunch that is an Apatow staple?
Nominations: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actress (McCarthy, Fox), Supporting Actor (Brooks, Lithgow)
Untitled Malick Project dir. Terrence Malick
Why: Malick always creates an interesting film and people love him. This movie stars two celebrities that have shown acting chops in the past and after the wonders he did with Brad Pitt, I’m excited to see what he can do with Rachel McAdams and Ben Affleck.
Why Not: Malick is still an acquired taste and even with all the love for The Tree of Life, it only got 3 nominations.
Nominations: Picture, Director, Actor (Ben Affleck), Actress (McAdams), Supporting Actress (Chastain), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Score
Zero Dark Thirty dir. Katheryn Bigelow
Why: It’s Katheryn Bigelow and Mark Boal’s follow up to their Oscar winning triumph The Hurt Locker and this time they’ve turned their gaze to the killing of Osama Bin Laden. That’s some juicy subject matter and as “America’s greatest mission” it should avoid issues about 9-11 themed movies.
Why Not: How did they even get this information? This was a top secret mission. 9-11 themed films haven’t fared well. Also, this could very well be a boring rehash of The Hurt Locker.
Nominations: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Score
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