Oscar Predictions: The Birth of a Nation and NYFF update
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We are now past phase 1 of the fall festival circuit, which we chatted about on the latest podcast, and are now in the NYFF phase 2, so it’s as good a time as any to update predictions. But first some analysis:
1. Remember how I said this was an awesome year for Black movies? Well I think that bounty will spell doom for one in particular. I have seen Birth of a Nation and as important a film as it is for a variety of reasons, I can certainly now understand why people have left it out of their predictions completely, as I have done now. It could certainly see a resurgence with critics but with other Black movies in the race, I see it going by the wayside for the Oscars. Doesn’t mean it’s not a quality film!
2. The Viola Davis conundrum. The first time the role was done on Broadway it was nomad for Featured Actress, second time it won for Lead Actress with Viola in the role. So will she go supporting or lead is a big thing that will hang over the race until the end. I need to re-read the play but I’m sure whatever category she’s in she’ll be a threat for the win. However, if she’s got Lead screen time and they push her supporting, I won’t be 100% happy to see her win, and a Viola Oscar deserves 100% happiness.
3. This summer was so raggedy in terms of blockbusters that I think the big fall movies will dominate the tech categories something serious.
Best Picture
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Fences
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Loving
Moonlight
Silence
Sully
Dropped: The Birth of a Nation, Nocturnal Animals
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Martin Scorcese, Silence
Dennis Villeneuve, Arrival
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Dev Patel, Lion
Denzel Washington, Fences
Dropped: Tom Hanks, Sully
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Viola Davis, Fences
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Dropped: Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Naomi Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe
Kristen Stewart, Billy’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Dropped: Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals, Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Stephen Henderson, Fences
Steve Martin, Billy’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Liam Neeson, Silence
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
Jackie
La La Land
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight
Dropped: Passengers, Loving
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Fences
Lion
Silence
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Sing
Trolls
Zootopia
Film Editing
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Jackie
La La Land
Moonlight
Silence
Dropped: Passengers
Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
La La Land
Passengers
Silence
Dropped: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Cinematography
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
La La Land
Nocturnal Animals
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Dropped: Passengers
Costume Design
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Fences
Florence Foster Jenkins
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
Dropped: Hidden Figures
Makeup and Hairstyling
Silence
Star Trek Beyond
The VVitch
Visual Effects
Arrival
Billy’s Long Half Time Walk to Freedom
Captain America: Civil War
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Sound Editing
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Magnificent Seven
Passengers
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sound Mixing
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
La La Land
Passengers
Silence
Dropped: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Original Score
Arrival
Hell or High Water
Loving
Jackie
Nocturnal Animals
Dropped: Moana, La La Land
Original Song
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Moana
Sausage Party
Star Trek Beyond
Documentary Feature
The 13th
Gleason
Holy Hell
Weiner
Zero Days
Foreign Language Film
Between Sea and Land (Colombia)
Julieta (Spain)
Neruda (Chile)
The Salesman (Iran)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Dropped: Elle (France)
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