Oscar Predictions: AFI Fest Detox
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So now that AFI Fest has come and gone, seems time to update these Oscar predictions before the avalanche of critics awards start arriving. (Also I need some content for the week.)
Main Questions:
-Will Patriots Day American Sniper itself into the race? I currently have this film in the sound categories but I would not be surprised if it netted more nominations.
-Which films will gobble up all of the nominations Billy Lynn won’t get? That film is basically DOA and therefore there’s noms up for grabs, particularly in the tech categories. Look for Jackie, Moonlight, and the aforementioned Patriot’s Day to fight for those.
-This isn’t really a question, but more of a plea to voters to please please please watch Hell or High Water. It’s so good and serves the nominations I currently have it predicted for.
Best Picture
20th Century Women
Arrival
Fences
Hell or High Water
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Loving
Moonlight
Silence
Dropped: Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Martin Scorcese, Silence
Dennis Villeneuve, Arrival
Denzel Washington, Fences
Dropped: Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Chris Pine, Hell of High Water
Denzel Washington, Fences
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Annette Benning, 20th Century Women
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomi Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Dropped: Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe, Kristen Stewart, Billy’s Long Halftime Walk
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Liam Neeson, Silence
Dev Patel, Lion
Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie
Dropped: Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight, Steve Martin, Billy’s Long Halftime Walk, Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals, Stephen Henderson, Fences
Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
Jackie
La La Land
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Silence
Dropped: Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
Sing
Zootopia
Dropped: Trolls
Film Editing
Arrival
Jackie
La La Land
Moonlight
Silence
Dropped: Passengers, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Jackie
Passengers
Silence
Dropped: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Cinematography
Arrival
Jackie
La La Land
Moonlight
Silence
Dropped: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Nocturnal Animals
Costume Design
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Fences
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
Silence
Dropped: Nocturnal Animals
Makeup and Hairstyling
Jackie
Silence
Star Trek Beyond
Dropped: The VVitch
Visual Effects
Arrival
Captain America: Civil War
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Passengers
Dropped: Billy’s Long Half Time Walk
Sound Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Passengers
Patriot’s Day
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Dropped: Magnificent Seven, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Sound Mixing
Arrival
La La Land
Passengers
Patriot’s Day
Silence
Dropped: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Original Score
Arrival
Hell or High Water
Loving
Jackie
Nocturnal Animals
Dropped: Moana, La La Land
Original Song
“Start a Fire” – La La Land
“City of Stars” – La La Land
“You’re Welcome” – Moana
“The Great Beyond” – Sausage Party
“Sledgehammer” – Star Trek Beyond
Dropped: Hail, Caesar!
Documentary Feature
The 13th
Before the Flood
The Eagle Huntress
Gleason
O.J.: Made in America
Dropped: Holy Hell, Weiner, Into the Inferno, Zero Days
Foreign Language Film
Between Sea and Land (Colombia)
Julieta (Spain)
Neruda (Chile)
The Salesman (Iran)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
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