Oscar Predictions: Post-Telluride and Venice

Two film festivals down, many more to go. We have officially entered into the Oscar predicting season. Toronto is ahead followed by NYFF and AFI, which will probably make these predictions hilarious in hindsight. Anyways here are my thoughts and Oscar predictions:

The surest thing amongst anyone’s predictions is Dunkirk showing up in a ton of places. A well regarded WWII film that has made good money will always be in serious contention, even if it didn’t have a beloved filmmaker at the helm.

If Dunkirk v Darkest Hour is gonna be our Saving Private Ryan v. The Thin Red Line, then what film is going to be the (rightful winner) Shakespeare in Love? Two films that could (sight unseen): Downsizing and The Post.

I’m even more excited to see The Shape of Water, especially after colleagues I respect said great things about it. With this and Get Out, this could be a fun year from a genre films doing good.

Picture
Battle of the Sexes
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Downsizing
Dunkirk
Get Out
Mudbound
The Post
The Shape of Water
Wonder Wheel

Dropped: Logan Lucky, Detroit, The Greatest Showman, The Current War, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

Director
Luca Gaudagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Alexander Payne, Downsizing
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

Dropped: Michael Gracey, The Greates Showman, Alfonso Gomez-Rejon, The Current War, Steven Soderbergh, Logan Lucky

Actress
Annette Benning, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

Dropped: Rooney Mara, Mary Magdalene, Claire Foy, Breathe, Jennifer Lawrence, Mother!

Actor
Steve Carrel, Battle of the Sexes
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.

Dropped: Channing Tatum, Logan Lucky, Andrew Garfield, Breathe, Chadwick Boseman, Marshall

Supporting Actress
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Melissa Leo, Novitiate
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman

Dropped: Riley Keough, Logan Lucky, Naomi Watts, The Glass Castle, Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck

Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, Marshall
Daniel Craig, Logan Lucky
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name

Dropped: Michael Shannon, The Current War, Zac Efron, The Greatest Showman

Original Screenplay
Darkest Hour
Downsizing
Get Out
The Shape of Water
Wonder Wheel

Dropped: Detroit, Logan Lucky, Three Billboards…

Adapted Screenplay
The Beguiled
Call Me By Your Name
Last Flag Flying
Mudbound
The Post

Dropped: The Glass Castle, The Snowman

Film Editing
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Downsizing
Get Out
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Dropped: The Greatest Showman, Detroit

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water
Wonder Wheel

Dropped: Breathe

Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water

Costumes
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
The Greatest Showman
Murder on the Orient Express
Wonderstruck

Dropped: The Beguiled

Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
The Shape of Water

Score
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Dropped: Mother!

Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Detroit
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Sound Mixing
Blade Runner 2049
Detroit
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Visual Effects
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War of the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman

Dropped: Ghost in the Shell, Justice League