Oscar Predictions: Still a Murky Race

So guys, can we chat about this Oscar season? I don’t know about you but this year feels both weirdly exciting and incredibly dull at the same time. This might just be a product of the fact that this year has been garbage but every time I have tried to edit these Oscar predictions my spirit has laid down to rest. There’s so much uncertainty but the viewing public hasn’t seen a significant chunk of the films in contention, which we need to take into account.

Other Notes
-It pains me to drop J-Law and Michelle P. from their respective categories but unless critics rally something fierce around mother! their Oscar chances are moot.

-There’s lots of festival darlings hanging around that want to bust through the noise. Of these, I’m interested in how I, Tonya (new distributor) and Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri (surprise TIFF Audience Award winner) fare.

-The most exciting races this year seem to be Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor. In the form, the Academy can go so many different ways from the indie box office hit (The Big Sick or Get Out) to the big Oscar players (Darkest Hour or Wonder Wheel). Meanwhile Supporting Actor might come down to movies with Best Picture heat and who has the best Oscar clips.

-If I had enough  faith in the Academy’s taste, I’d say that either The Shape of Water or Call Me By Your Name was the leader in the clubhouse for Best Picture. However, I think that we’re kidding ourselves if we don’t have Dunkirk as the film to beat in our Oscar predictions. The movie is the kind of virtuosic filmmaking they want in a genre they trip over themselves to nominate time and time again.

Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Downsizing
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Mudbound
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

Dropped: Wonder Wheel

Director
Luca Gaudagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Alexander Payne, Downsizing
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

Dropped: Annette Benning, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool, Jennifer Lawrence, Mother!

Actor
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.

Dropped: Chadwick Boseman, Marshall

Supporting Actress
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Melissa Leo, Novitiate
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Dropped: Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman, Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name

Dropped: Sterling K. Brown, Marshall, Daniel Craig, Logan Lucky

Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Darkest Hour
Get Out
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

Dropped: Downsizing, Wonder Wheel

Adapted Screenplay
The Beguiled
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Last Flag Flying
Mudbound

Dropped: Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Film Editing
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Dropped: Downsizing

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Wonder Wheel

Dropped: The Greatest Showman

Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
The Greatest Showman
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Dropped: The Shape of Water

Costumes
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
The Greatest Showman
Murder on the Orient Express
Wonder Woman

Dropped: The Beguiled, Wonderstruck

Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
The Shape of Water

Score
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Dropped: Blade Runner 2049

Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Detroit
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Sound Mixing
Blade Runner 2049
Detroit
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War of the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman

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