My Ridiculous and Highly Unnecessary Year in Advance Oscar Predictions
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So I honestly have no idea why I’m doing year in advanced predictions. I have barely recovered from this awards season, the Oscars just aired (yay The Shape of Water and Get Out!), and I truly don’t like thinking about awards potential and stuff until like November. But here we are lol This was kind of a fun exercise to do, looking ahead. I am by no means hanging my hat on these. In fact, half of these films prob won’t even sniff the Oscars. But let’s take a semi serious gander at next year’s Oscar slate.
Notes:
They really have no excuse not to nominate some people of color this coming year cause there’s a gazillion projects with overdue, up and coming, and generally great talent. I am particularly excited for the number of Black people we could get, even if Black Panther gets zero noms.
Speaking of, Black Panther is poised to become the first superhero movie to land in picture but it still has a long way to go for that. Please y’all, for me, temper those expectations. Though it it can build on the years of Marvel acclaim and Wonder Woman’s challenge last year, these films still have an uphill battle. The Dark Knight managed 8 noms and a huge above the line win, and Black Panther could do the same. For now I’m going to treat it as if it was divorced from history and predict it where it could land, which is mainly in the tech categories and Best Picture. The one interesting thing to see is how awards bodies approach the actors. Doing these ridiculous predictions made me think about the following conundrum, given the way the Academy views performances, who would get the supporting actor nom: Michael B Jordan or Winston Duke? I have Duke predicted but given Jordan’s celebrity and larger role, he’d probably be the one to get the nom.
It’s about to be auteur central next year with James Gray, Spike Lee, Barry Jenkins, Alfonso Cuaron, Scorsese, McQueen, Farhadi, etc.
The one film I keep coming back to as an interesting wrinkle is Roma. You always have to have your wig glued on when Cuaron has a film but this movie has had me shook since he said they had to delay it to work on the VFX. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN ALFONSO?
BEST MOTION PICTURE
Backseat
Black Klansman
Black Panther
Everybody Knows
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Irishman
Mary Queen of Scots
Roma
Widows
Alt: Widows, The Seagull, The Red Sea Diving Resort, The Favourite, We the Animals, Boy Erased, The Women of Marwen, The Front Runner
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Spike Lee, Black Klansman
Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Christian Bale, Backseat
Javier Bardem, Everybody Knows
Steve Carell, The Women of Marwen
Robert DeNiro, The Irishman
Ryan Gosling, First Man
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Penelope Cruz, Everybody Knows
Viola Davis, Widows
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Winston Duke, Black Panther
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Sam Rockwell, Backseat
Corey Stoll, The Seagull
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams, Backseat
Claire Foy, First Man
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Backseat
Black Klansmen
First Man
Everybody Knows
Roma
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Boy Erased
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Irishman
Mary Queen of Scots
Widows
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
The Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
First Man
The Irishman
Mary Queen of Scots
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Irishman
Roma
The Women of Marwen
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Black Panther
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Mary Queen of Scots
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
The Seagull
BEST FILM EDITING
Backseat
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Irishman
Mary Queen of Scots
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians
Mary Queen of Scots
BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Panther
The Bombing
First Man
Mary Queen of Scots
A Star is Born
BEST SOUND EDITING
Annihilation
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Sicario 2: Soldado
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Annihilation
Aquaman
Avengers: Infinity War
Mowgli
Roma
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Everybody Knows
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Queen of Scots
Roma
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