Oscar Predix: December
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I know that I have been woeful in my blog updates…trying to be like Nathaniel of filmexperience.blogspot.com is a lofty goal. I shall keep trying however! Oscar baiting can be an interesting process as these guesses (and they are guesses till awards start being handed out) are way different from my original Predictions. So here we go!
Best Picture:
Precious
Precious
Nine
Up in the Air
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
Avatar
An Education
Inglorious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
The Last Station
Oooo goodness this category looks tremendously different since July. The ten nomination announcement has really shaken things up and with reviews starting to pour in this list began to take shape. The Lovely Bones is looking to not be the juggernaut that I thought it would be, but I still think its due a nomination. Nine is looking GLORIOUS in all of its promotional materials (except for two of those photoshopped posters) but I am a sucker for musicals. Of all of the early buzzed about movies, this one probably has the greatest chance of winning the whole thing. Invictus=Clint+Morgan Freeman+Matt Damon+sports story (which they occasionally reward aka Hoosiers, Chariots of Fire). The Hurt Locker was an expert vision of tension and power and Up in the Air was fantastic and just won the NBR Best Picture, so I am sure both of these will be nominated. The real winner here is Precious which has SKYROCKETED in buzz and is gobbling up awards left and right. I would declare it the front runner as it is incredibly moving, but its not out by much.
Watch out for:
Up, its only a matter of time before a animated film gets nominated again and Pixar is a default front runner, but doesn’t this have its own category to win?
The Road, a bleak adaptation of the Pulitzer Prize winning novel. They have nommed bleak before could this make it?
Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Rob Marshall, Nine
Lee Daniels, Precious
James Cameron, Avatar
This category has been thrown into such upheaval since I last posted. I really loved what Lee Daniels did with Precious and his film is going to carry him to a nom. Jason Reitman has been making moves (Up in the Air was fantastic), and Rob Marshall can direct a musical like no other. I am convinced Avatar is going to be a major player so James Cameron is the last one for now. But for me the winner is Kathryn Bigelow. She directed a taut, war film that had me anticipating every scene. War is a favorite for the academy and this film was great.
Watch out for:Peter Jackson, he is a visionary but the reviews have been less than kind, can he still get a nom?
Best Actor:
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Johnny Depp, Public Enemies
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Johnny Depp, Public Enemies
I am still holding on for dear life that Johnny Depp will get a nomination for Public Enemies, but I will probably drop him off next month. Morgan Freeman is all but guaranteed a nomination by virtue of the character he is playing. Colin Firth has been getting best in show reviews and is out front for now. (We all know the academy loves it when straight actors play gay.) Nipping on his heels are George Clooney and Jeff Bridges, who is tremendously overdue for an Oscar. Could that propel whim to a win?
Watch out for:Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker is set to be a major player in the awards race and his role was integral to the movie, devastatingly effective in his time on the screen
Best Actress:
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe , Precious
Hellen Mirren, The Last Station
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Like Johnny, Abbie Cornish is holding onto the last spot just barely. Carey Mulligan has been getting raves for An Education but she seems to be cooling off as of late with the rise of Gabourey who was absolutely heartbreaking in Precious (in her first role I might add). Hellen Mirren looks to steal The Last Station from everyone. I love it when actors get the opportunity to chew scenery and she looks to devour the set. But Meryl Streep looks to have it right now. Oscar can’t keep nominating her just to see her lose, can they?
Watch out for:Marion Cotillard, if only they would campaign her supporting she would be guaranteed a nom. Haven’t seen Nine but her song ‘Take it All’ is a true show stopper and she has the Oscarable role (cheated on spouse)
Saoirse Ronan, said to be one of the bright spots in this awards baiting film and she has proven she can hold her own against more experienced actors (Atonement)
Best Supporting Actor:
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Cristopher Plummer, The Last Station
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Alfred Molina, An Education
Matt Damon, Invictus
Alfred Molina, An Education
Matt Damon, Invictus
Matt Damon has been having a banner year, and should get a nomination for Invictus. If nothing else his accent was incredible in the trailer. Relationship drama supporting men have a great track record at getting nominations (Ordinary People, Revolutionary Road) so Alfred Molina has a great shot. Cristoph Waltz did win the acting prize at Cannes, which says something and evil characters are a plus here. Christopher Plummer is being campaigned supporting and they would be wise to push the ‘career’ Oscar. Having read The Lovely Bones, Stanley Tucci’s role as the villain, is a hellish character but something about the way it was written, it doesn’t seem like there is much to ACT versus just to be the center of our anger. However, the reviews have been tremendously excellent and he should get a nom.
Watch out for:
Anthony Mackie, could the momentum of The Hurt Locker carry him to a nom? He was just as fantastic as Jeremy Renner and very affecting. Best Supporting Actress
Mo’Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Marion Cotillard, Public Enemies
Susan Surandon, playing one of the best characters in the book and she can chew scenery like no other. But how big is the role?
This category changed drastically, only one woman remained from my previous predictions. The Oscar is Mo’Nique’s to lose. The reviews for her performance have been some of the best I have ever read for a film and she was BEYOND great (read: evil and heartbreaking) in the film. Julianne Moore is always an Oscar threat, but how is her screen time in the film. Penelope Cruz will benefit from Ms. Cotillard being campaigned lead and she has THE show stopper of the musical. Marion Cotillard was the best part of Public Enemies and if the Nine Campaign fails, she will get a nom for this or both. Anna Kendrick was fantastic in Up in the Air and she should find herself happy on nomination morning.
Watch out for:Susan Surandon, playing one of the best characters in the book and she can chew scenery like no other. But how big is the role?
Vera Farmiga, she smoldered on the screen with George and her character is very deep, but Anna is thieving all her thunder. Can she score the second nom?
Animated Feature
Up
Up
Caroline
Princess and the Frog
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Monsters vs. Aliens
Screenplays
Original: The Hurt Locker
Adapted: Up in the Air
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