(Outrageously) Early Oscar Predictions

The Lovely Bones, Nine, The Human Factor, Shutter Island, An Education

I feel like Nine and Lovely Bones are but locks just on their casts alone. Each director has had a best picture winner so the technical qualities should be good. The Human Factor=Clint+Morgan Freeman+Matt Damon+sports story (which they occasionally reward aka Hoosiers, Chariots of Fire). I am slightly iffy on An Education but there always seems to be an indie that sneaks in and Shutter Island seems so intriguing and Scorsese does well with complex material. But watch out for Avatar, every once in a while a revolutionary sci-fi epic gets in (Blade Runner, LOTR trilogy).

Others to consider: Public Enemies, Precious, The Tempest, Avatar, The Last Station, Tree of Life, The Hurt Locker, The Road, Taking Woodstock

Best Director:

Martin Scorsese, Shutter Island

Clint Eastwood, The Human Factor

Rob Marshall, Nine

Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones

James Cameron, Avatar

While I want to include Zack Snyder for his take on Watchmen, there is only SO much sci-fi the Academy can take (its a superhero movie lets not kid ourselves) and from what I am hearing about Avatar, James Cameron may get a nom. I think Rob Marshall will take it home because last time he had a good musical, he lost for Chicago. The dark horse maybe Lee Daniels. This may become obsolete, as there are many women vying for these spots as well (and its a good thing!)

Others to consider: Katheryn Biglow, Mira Nair, Lone Scherfig, Julie Taymor, Michael Mann, Ang Lee (he can do anything), Lee Daniels, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu

Best Actor:

Morgan Freeman, The Human Factor

Johnny Depp, Public Enemies

Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island

Javier Bardem, Bitiful

Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine

Morgan Freeman is all but guaranteed a nomination by virtue of the character he is playing. Leonardo was snubbed for Revolutionary Road in favor of a CGI Brad Pitt and if he is good in this he will get a makeup nod. Johnny Depp can do anything and get a nomination (Pirates of the Carribean) and I think Javier has a shot. Daniel Day Lewis is one of the best actors alive but the academy rarely rewards him in “romantic” movies. I personally would love to see Matt Damon get a nom but these five will do for now.

Others to consider: Peter Sarsgard (An Education), Matt Damon (The Informant), Mark Wahllberg (The Lovely Bones)

Best Actress:

Hillary Swank, Amelia 

Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri

Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones 

Carey Mulligan, An Education 

Natalie Portman, Brothers

How can we assume Hillary won’t be trying for her 3^rd Oscar? She is in the same boat as Morgan Freeman. I like Michelle, its nice to see her get some good material. I am not too sure about this category but Natalie Portman was excellent in Closer and this is a mature role. Carey is getting good press at the moment and Saorise already has one nomination…

Others to consider: Emily Watson (Within the Whirlwind), Romola Garai (1939), Halle Berry (Frankie and Alice), Hellen Mirren (Love Ranch), Robin Wright Penn (The Private Lives of Pippa Lee)

Supporting Actor:

Stanley Tucci, The  Lovely Bones

James McAvoy, The Last Station

Mark Ruffalo, Shutter Island

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road

Matt Damon, The Human Factor

I think this might be the year for monsters in the supporting category as Stanley is playing the killer in the Lovely Bones. James McAvoy is a very good actor due some love and can Mark Ruffalo PLEASE get some acknowledgement. I think Matt Damon will have an easier time getting nominated in a Clint prestige picture than a Soderberg satire. Every so often a child gets nominated, well it does happen rather frequently, so Kodi has a good chance but does The Road being pushed back a year mean anything? Personally, I would love to see Jonathan Groff.

Others to consider: Alfred Molina (An Education), Billy Crudup (Public Enemies), Robert Downey Jr. (The Soloist), Johnathan Groff (Taking Woodstock)

Supporting Actress

Mo’Nique, Precious

Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones

Emily Mortimer, Shutter Island

Judi Dench, Nine

Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

Others to consider: Kathy Bates (Cheri), Patricia Clarkson (Whatever Works),  Michelle Williams (Shutter Island), Susan Surandon (The Lovely Bones), anyone from NINE really…

You know you live in a changing world when Mo’Nique is going to get an Oscar. I hope she does, the reviews for her performance have been some of the best I have ever read for a film. Rachel is playing traditional Oscar bait (grieving mother) in a prestige film. Meryl could practically wear a bag over her head for a movie and get a nomination so Julia Child shouldn’t be hard as she looks fantastic in the trailer. Emily Mortimer is playing a mentally unstable serial killer in a Scorsese film, check and check. Judi Dench is only there because she has one of the best songs in the musical and the academy LOVES her but she is really interchangeable with anyone (Penelope, Nicole, Marion C., Fergie even…)

Techs

Avatar and Transformers will clean house

Animated Feature

Up, its really not a contest when Pixar makes a movie…

Screenplays

Who knows… Whatever Works (Woody Allen) and The Lovely Bones (Peter Jackson)