Tony Awards 2009 Predictions

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The Tonys, unlike most award shows, rarely have any suspense as the favorites usually win the awards they have won preceding the big event at Radio City Music Hall.

Best Play
• Dividing the Estate
• God of Carnage
• Reasons to Be Pretty
• 33 Variations

Should/Will win: God of Carnage, its the critical darling and box office smash. When was the last time that happened? Oh yeah, last year with August: Osage County which won the Tony.

Best Musical
• Billy Elliot
• Next to Normal
• Rock of Ages
• Shrek

Should win: Next to Normal; daring subject matter, new material, excellent performances to elevate the material but alas…
Will win: Billy Elliot, a crowd pleaser and critical favorite rarely loses and this is right up the alley for Tony voeters

Best book of a musical

• Billy Elliot
• Next to Normal
• Shrek
• [Title of Show]

Should win: [Title of Show], it’s the shows only nomination and it takes serious work to write a show about writing a show
Will win: Next to Normal

Best original score

• Billy Elliot
• Next to Normal
• 9 to 5
• Shrek

Should/will win: Next to Normal, 30+ new songs with an emotional charge

Best revival of a play

• Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
• Mary Stuart
• The Norman Conquests
• Waiting for Godot

Should win: Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Will win: Norman Conquests

Best revival of a musical

• Guys and Dolls
• Hair
• Pal Joey
• West Side Story

Should/will win: Hair; while I would love for West Side Story to win, its all about Hair

Best leading actor in a play

• Jeff Daniels, God of Carnage
• Raúl Esparza, Speed-the-Plow
• James Gandolfini, God of Carnage
• Geoffrey Rush, Exit the King
• Thomas Sadoski, Reasons to Be Pretty

Should win: Raul Esparza, what more does he have to do to win a Tony?
Will win: Geoffrey Rush, great film actor on stage

Best leading actress in a play

• Hope Davis, God of Carnage
• Jane Fonda, 33 Variations
• Marcia Gay Harden, God of Carnage
• Janet McTeer, Mary Stuart
• Harriet Walter, Mary Stuart

Should/will win: Marcia Gay Harden

Best leading actor in a musical

• David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik and Kiril Kulish, Billy Elliot
• Gavin Creel, Hair
• Brian d’Arcy James, Shrek
• Constantine Maroulis, Rock of Ages
• J. Robert Spencer, Next to Normal

Should/will win: The Billy Elliot trio

Best leading actress in a musical

• Stockard Channing, Pal Joey
• Sutton Foster, Shrek
• Allison Janney, 9 to 5
• Alice Ripley, Next to Normal
• Josefina Scaglione, West Side Story

Should/will win: Alice Ripley as the mentally unstable mother in Next to Normal

Best featured actor in a play

•John Glover, Waiting for Godot
• Zach Grenier, 33 Variations
• Stephen Mangan, The Norman Conquests
• Paul Ritter, The Norman Conquests
• Roger Robinson, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

Should/will win: Roger Robinson

Best featured actress in a play

• Hallie Foote, Dividing the Estate
• Jessica Hynes, The Norman Conquests
• Marin Ireland, Reasons to Be Pretty
• Angela Lansbury, Blithe Spirit
• Amanda Root, The Norman Conquests

Should/will win: Lansbury, is this even a contest?

Best featured actor in a musical

• David Bologna, Billy Elliot
• Gregory Jbara, Billy Elliot
• Marc Kudisch, 9 to 5
• Christopher Sieber, Shrek
• Will Swenson, Hair

Should/Will win: Will Swenson, the best of the two leads and it’s Hair’s only chance for an acting win

Best featured actress in a musical

• Jennifer Damiano, Next to Normal
• Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot
• Karen Olivo, West Side Story
• Martha Plimpton, Pal Joey
• Carole Shelley, Billy Elliot

Should/will win: Karen Olivo; is there a more iconic character for a woman than Anita? Aside from Mama Rose and a few others, this is it and she owned the role.

Best direction of a play

• Phyllida Lloyd, Mary Stuart
• Bartlett Sher, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
• Matthew Warchus, God of Carnage
• Matthew Warchus, The Norman Conquests

Should/will win: Matthew Warchus, The Norman Conquests; he has the most material (7 1/2 hours worth of farce) and should be rewarded

Best direction of a musical

• Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot
• Michael Greif, Next to Normal
• Kristin Hanggi, Rock of Ages
• Diane Paulus, Hair

Should win: Paulus.
Will win: Daldry; against my better judgment I am picking Daldry over Paulus…

Best choreography

• Karole Armitage, Hair
• Andy Blankenbuehler, 9 to 5
• Peter Darling, Billy Elliot
• Randy Skinner, Irving Berlin’s White Christmas

Should/will win: Peter Darling

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Terence Johnson

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