New Oscar Predictions…and HUGE News
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I was all set to put my Oscar picks up and then I ran over to EW.com to find out that they are going to be expanding the Best Picture category to 10 (!!!!!!!) nominees. 10 nominees!!!!!!! Well that certainly makes my predictions kinda dated. Personally I think this idea is completely outrageous what in the world do we need 10 Best picture nominees???? Why not 6 or 7? I can’t help but think this is completely about the backlash over last year’s perceived snubs (Wall-E and the Dark Knight), but let’s be realistic how many people are banking on the fact that a movie like Star Trek will get a nomination and not another Frost/Nixon? The Academy has made some strange decisions in the past but this is by far one of the greatest mistakes.
The shocking article is here: http://oscar-watch.ew.com/2009/06/2010-oscars-to-have-10-best-picture-nominees.html
So here are my Oscar predics, pre-10 nominee announcement:
Best Picture:
Nine
The Lovely Bones
Invictus
Shutter Island
An Education
Others to consider: Avatar, Public Enemies, Precious, Amelia, The Tempest, The Last Station, Bright Star
I STILL feel like Nine and Lovely Bones are but locks just on their casts alone and NINE looked glorious in the trailer. My only question is why does it look so stage bound? It isn’t necessary for every musical to be performed in the Chicago frame of mind because it can blow up in your face (Dreamgirls). Rob and Peter each have had a best picture winner so the technical qualities should be good.
Invictus=Clint+Morgan Freeman+Matt Damon+sports story (which they occasionally reward aka Hoosiers, Chariots of Fire). I am still slightly iffy on An Education, but there always seems to be an indie that sneaks in.
The real change comes regarding Shutter Island, which seems so intriguing and judging by the trailer it will look gorgeous but it seems to be suffering through an identity crisis on whether it’s a thriller, horror film, drama?? Scorsese does well with complex material and it will be on the list for now…
Watch out for:
Avatar, every once in a while a revolutionary sci-fi epic gets in (Blade Runner, LOTR trilogy, Star Wars) and I would love to see this genre get more recognition.
Precious, has been gobbling up buzz since it premired at sundance and it has Oprah’s backing…
Best Director:
Martin Scorsese, Shutter Island
Clint Eastwood, Invictus, tie
Lee Daniels, Precious
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones, tie
James Cameron, Avatar
Others to consider: Rob Marshall (NINE), Katheryn Biglow, Lone, Julie Taymor (The Tempest), Michael Mann (Public Enemies), Ang Lee (he can do anything), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Bitiful), Jane Campion (Bright Star)
It’s definitely a sign of the times when so many minorities are in contention for possible Oscar consideration. My love for Watchmen has been tempered with sense so Zack Snyder will be ok without my vote.
From the bits and pieces of what I am hearing about Avatar, James Cameron may get a nom. The one change to the previous list is Lee Daniels but is Precious just an actor’s film? This category is really Clint’s and Peter’s to lose but we won’t know until late in the year if either movie is good…I moved Rob Marshall from the list for now cause while the trailer looked excellent, it looks too stagey and that doesn’t always work for musicals…
Watch out for:
The women. I know that is an extreme generalization and not necessarily respectful of the differences in the movies these women directed. HOWEVER, I must put all of them in a group because anyone could catch fire and get a nomination.
Best Actor:
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Johnny Depp, Public Enemies
Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
Javier Bardem, Bitiful
Matt Damon, The Informant
Others to consider: Peter Sarsgard (An Education), Daniel Day-Lewis (NINE), Mark Wahllberg (The Lovely Bones)
Morgan Freeman is all but guaranteed a nomination by virtue of the character he is playing. Leonardo was snubbed for Revolutionary Road in favor of a CGI Brad Pitt and if he is good in this he will get a makeup nod. Johnny Depp can do anything and get a nomination (Pirates of the Carribean) and I think Javier has a shot. Daniel Day Lewis is one of the best actors alive but the academy rarely rewards him in “romantic” movies so he has been regulated to the others category in favor of Matt Damon, who will be gaining weight (an Academy plus) for the Informant.
Watch out for:
Mark Walberg, The Lovely Bones is set to be a major player in the awards race and he has one of the most, if not the most, devastatingly affected characters in the novel and it is a very different role for him. The Academy does like range…
Best Actress:
Hillary Swank, Amelia
Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri
Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Others to consider: Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Natalie Portman (Brothers), Halle Berry (Frankie and Alice), Hellen Mirren (Love Ranch)
How can we assume Hillary won’t be trying for her 3rd Oscar? She is in the same boat as Morgan Freeman. I like Michelle, its nice to see her get some good material. This is the one category that I am the most unsure about who will make the short list, having not gotten enough of a feel for most of these films. The one big change was Abbie Cornish, who is said to be one of the best things about Bright Star. Carey is getting good press at the moment and Saorise already has one, but is she supporting or lead…
Watch out for:
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious has already found plenty of fans, carries a Oprah and Tyler Perry endorsement and she is playing the title character in this harrowing drama
Supporting Actor:
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones, tie
James McAvoy, The Last Station
Mark Ruffalo, Shutter Island
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road
Matt Damon, The Human Factor, tie
Others to consider: Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds), Alfred Molina (An Education), Ewan McGregor (Amelia), Robert Downey Jr. (The Soloist), Johnathan Groff (Taking Woodstock)
I think Matt Damon might be looking at a banner year, getting his second nomination for the Clint Eastwood film. Having read The Lovely Bones, I don’t know what to make of Stanley Tucci’s role as the villain, who rapes and kills the main character. It is a hellish character but something about the way it was written, it doesn’t seem like there is much to ACT versus just to be the center of our anger, but I will leave him up for now. James McAvoy is a very good actor due some love.
If someone can explain the Shutter Island trailer situation to me: how in the world are we only going to have a few seconds of Mark Ruffalo footage? Is he just a minor character? Every so often a child gets nominated, well it does happen rather frequently, so Kodi has a good chance but does The Road being pushed back a year mean anything? Personally, I would love to see Jonathan Groff.
Watch out for:
Alfred Molina, An Education: Relationship drama supporting men have a great track record at getting nominations (Ordinary People, Revolutionary Road) and he will more than likely knock the kid from The Road off the short list. Actually writing this synopsis makes me want to add his name…
Cristoph Waltz, he did win the acting prize at Cannes and that has to say something
Supporting Actress
Mo’Nique, Precious
Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones
Emily Mortimer, Shutter Island
Judi Dench, Nine
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Others to consider: Kathy Bates (Cheri), Patricia Clarkson (Whatever Works), Michelle Williams (Shutter Island), Susan Surandon (The Lovely Bones), anyone from NINE really…
You know you live in a changing world when Mo’Nique is going to get an Oscar. I hope she does, the reviews for her performance have been some of the best I have ever read for a film and she looked great (read: evil and heartbreaking) in the trailer. Rachel is playing traditional Oscar bait (grieving mother) in a prestige film. Meryl could practically wear a bag over her head for a movie and get a nomination so Julia Child shouldn’t be hard as she looks fantastic in the trailer. Emily Mortimer is playing a mentally unstable serial killer in a Scorsese film, check and check. Judi Dench is only there because she has one of the best songs in the musical and the academy LOVES her but she is really interchangeable with anyone (Penelope, Nicole, Marion C., Fergie even…)
Watch out for:
Sigourney Weaver, what??? Wouldn’t it be awesome if by teaming with James Cameron for a (yet another) alien movie she could get another nomination?
Techs
Transformers will be nominated for seemingly every technical award…and Avatar and Star Trek will walk away with everyone, again shutting out the shape-shifting robots.
Animated Feature
Up, its really not a contest when Pixar makes a (ok to good) movie…
Screenplays
Bright Star and The Lovely Bones (Peter Jackson)
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