New set of Oscar predictions and the last before the new year! Now that SAG and the Globes have nominated stuff, we get a more defined look at how the season will go.

Quick Thoughts
The Documentary, VFXScore, Song, and Foreign Language shortlists were revealed and when I tell you these folks don’t care about what people are predicting…There are so many films that missed the cut that awards prognosticators thought would be in.

As much as it looks like James Franco is headed to an Oscar nomination for The Disaster Artist, I just cannot for the life of me find a way to put him in my predictions. It seems too weird and populist even for the changing Academy and they’re already going to give their adventurous vote to Kaluuya. That final spot really feels like it will go to an industry vet, either Denzel or Hanks.

What will happen in Supporting Actor? It’s the year’s most boring race (Dafoe or bust) but also the category with the least amount of noms “Determined.” I am relying on the Best Picture heat of Dunkirk to keep Rylance in, but with Harrelson picking up SAG and the Call Me By Your Name boys splitting everywhere, that might spell doom for them. Also, what to make of Carrel popping up at SAG…

Oscar Predictions – 12/19

Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
Mudbound
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside of Ebbing, Missouri

Director
Luca Gaudagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Dropped: Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
Dropped: Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Dropped: Melissa Leo, Novitiate

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Dropped: Jason Mitchell, Mudbound, Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name

Original Screenplay
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Dropped: The Big Sick, The Shape of Water

Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Wonder
Dropped: The Beguiled, Stronger

Film Editing
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Dropped: Call Me By Your Name

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Dropped: Wonder Wheel

Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Dropped: The Greatest Showman

Costumes
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
The Greatest Showman
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Dropped: Murder on the Orient Express

Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
I, Tonya
Dropped: The Shape of Water

Score
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Dropped: Darkest Hour

Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Detroit
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Sound Mixing
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Dropped: Detroit

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War of the Planet of the Apes
Dropped: Wonder Woman

Original Song
“Evermore” – Beauty and the Beast
“Visions of Gideon” – Call M By Your Name
“Remember Me” – Coco
“This is Me” – The Greatest Showman
“Mighty River” – Mudbound
Dropped:“Jump” – Step

Animated Feature
The Big Bad Fox & Other Tales
The Breadwinner
Coco
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent
Dropped: Captain Underpants

Documentary
Chasing Coral
City of Ghosts
Faces Places
Jane
Strong Island
Dropped: Step

Foreign Language
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
Foxtrot (Israel)
In the Fade (Germany)
Loveless (Russia)
The Square (Sweden)
Dropped: BPM (France), First They Killed My Father (Cambodia)