Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2
Oscar Analysis: The end of the gazillion dollar franchise and a great wrap up. Sure to be kept in the conversation during awards season cause of that massive box office . I’d put off hopes for that Best Pic nom though, none of the other films were so i don’t see AMPAS just deciding to nom the last one.

  • Good Bets: Visual Effects, Cinematography, Art Direction
  • Probables: Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Mixing
  • Long Shots: Best Supporting Actor (Alan Rickman), Best Picture

The Help
Oscar Analysis: I really loved this movie and thought it was an excellent adaptation of the hugely popular novel. While their were some issues (the Skeeter love story being the top among them) this is a great film. The performances are oustanding with Viola Davis, Octavia Spencer, Bryce Dallas Howard and Jessica Chastain leading the way. Even the women with “bit” parts Sissy Spacek and Allison Janney, get in on the fun. As far as Oscar goes, this movie could go so many ways. If it’s a hit expect big returns come awards season. They need to sort out the categorization with the actresses but this is a film to be rewarded.

  • Good Bets: Adapted Screenplay, Best Actress (Viola Davis), Best Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer), Costumes, Original Song
  • Probables: Best Supporting Actress (Jessica Chastain, if Viola goes lead)
  • Long Shots: Director, Picture (only if it’s a hit), Best Supporting Actress (Bryce Dallas Howard, only if they go crazy, and I mean batshit crazy)

    Captain America: The First Avenger
    Oscar Analysis: Ok hear me out. Due to its patriotic nature and 40s loving motif, I think that Captain America will be the most nominated superhero picture of the summer and has a chance to make some real headway with the Academy. Don’t be shocked if it gets 5-7 noms come January.

    • Good Bets: Visual Effects, Costumes, Original Song
    • Probables: Sound Editing and Mixing, Art Direction, Cinematography, Film Editing
    • Long Shots: none, the above is enough

    Bridesmaids
    Oscar Analysis: This was a colossal hit and being a female driving comedy, those are few and far between. Anyone with eyeballs can see the care and passion that went into this project, and come Oscar morning I’m sure it will get love. But how much love? The screenplay is a shoe-in (being the best way to honor the movie) but if the rest of the year doesn’t turn out as planned there could be more in store…

    • Good Bets: Original Screenplay
    • Probables: none
    • Long Shots: Picture, Best Actress (Kristen Wiig), Best Supporting Actress (Melissa McCarthy), Best Supporting Actor (John Hamm)

    Super 8
    Analysis: The fact that I can’t automatically recall having seen this film should say something. I’m sure I’m not the only one, but the Academy might go gaga for this nostalgia fest when it comes out on dvd later in the year.

    • Good Bets: Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Mixing
    • Probables: Cinematography
    • Long Shots: Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Elle Fanning)
    Midnight in Paris
    Analysis: This is such a fun film, especially for literary lovers. And this is right up the Academy’s alley in terms of reflection on the past and Woody Allen’s “comeback” and highest grossing picture. I wonder what will be made of the supporting characters. Corey Stroll deserves a nomination for his great portrayal of Hemmingway.
    • Good Bets: Original Screenplay
    • Probables: Picture, Cinematography
    • Long Shots: Director, Best Supporting Actor (Corey Stroll), Best Actor (Owen Wilson)

    Others
    Transformers 3: Dark of the Moon: Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Mixing
    Rise of the Planet of the Apes: Visual Effects (it’s the front runner), Sound Editing and Mixing
    Crazy Stupid Love: Screenplay?
    X-Men: Visual Effects, Costumes?