oscar predictions

These are pre-Toronto pics that took me eons to do, and will probably drastically change. I also don’t “really care” about these, if you’ve seen my recent rants about these.

One of the coolest things about this Oscar season is that for the first time in recent memory I truly feel like the films are really diverse, in particular with regards to those that star and feature African Americans. This isn’t to say there haven’t been many Black film years in the history of cinema, but this year feels especially awesome in that I can see the turning point in the industry. Many times we have a big Black film in the race but it only showcases one aspect of the Black experience, often times the poor, downtrodden one. That’s a valid narrative but we live other lives too. In the Oscar race, you’ve got a wide range of films from the slave narrative (The Birth of a Nation) to Black women at NASA (Hidden Figures) to ruminations on black masculinity and sexuality (Moonlight). And this doesn’t even include the potential Osca behemoth that could be Fences. That’s so awesome!

Also, for what it’s worth, I don’t think The Birth of a Nation is dead with Oscars. I do think Nate Parker won’t be nominated anywhere other than Best Picture though.

Best Picture
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
The Birth of a Nation
Fences
La La Land
Loving
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
Sully

Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Martin Scorcese, Silence
Dennis Villeneuve, Arrival

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Actress
Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals
Viola Davis, Fences
Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
Ruth Negga, Loving
Emma Stone, La La Land

Best Supporting Actress
Naomi Harris, Moonlight
Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals
Kristen Stewart, Billy’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Stephen Henderson, Fences
Steve Martin, Billy’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Liam Neeson, Silence
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Loving
Machester By the Sea
Passengers

Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Fences
Moonlight
Silence

Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Sing
Trolls
Zootopia

Film Editing
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
La La Land
Moonlight
Passengers
Silence

Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Passengers
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Silence

Cinematography
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Nocturnal Animals
Passengers
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Costume Design
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hidden Figures
Nocturnal Animals
Silence

Makeup and Hairstyling
Silence
Star Trek Beyond
The VVitch

Visual Effects
Arrival
Billy’s Long Half Time Walk to Freedom
Captain America: Civil War
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book

Sound Editing
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Magnificent Seven
Passengers
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Sound Mixing
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to Freedom
Passengers
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Silence

Original Score
Arrival
La La Land
Loving
Moana
Nocturnal Animals

Original Song
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Moana
Sausage Party
Star Trek Beyond

Documentary Feature
The 13th
Gleason
Holy Hell
Weiner
Zero Days

Foreign Language Film
Between Sea and Land (Colombia)
Elle (France)
Julieta (Spain)
The Salesman (Iran)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)