I have to confess something to you all, this might be the toughest early predictions I’ve ever done. Not because it was tough to select films, but because the prestige fare we seem to be getting looks so boring. Aside from Hugh Jackman’s musical and Call Me By Your Name, the field looks so bland and prestige-y.

Notes:
-Christopher Nolan must be taking those Best Director snubs hard, because he’s gone full Oscar chasing mode with his decision to make a WWII movie, Dunkirk. WWII is Oscar’s most popular genre and at this point the only reason you make a WWII movie is to be nominated for major awards. I have that film being a player but I won’t be shocked if it flops (Oscar-wise).

-Deakins might win an Oscar this year! He’ll have perhaps his best shot with the new Blade Runner film that he’s ever had at a win.

-Logan Lucky dropped a trailer and it has me shook. It looks like a ton of fun and there are so many elements that could be players in the awards race, starting with Daniel Craig. How interesting would it be if this Bond got an Oscar nomination, and for a comedy no less!

-Cannes Film Festival just wrapped up and looking at it there were several films I felt could factor into the Oscars, particularly in the Foreign Language category. The Beguiled is one that could be a big player but for some reason I don’t really see that factoring into the race all that much.

-How will the streaming services, particularly Netflix, fare this year? Mud bound was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance and I was very intrigued by the Netflix pick up. After Amazon beat them to the Best Picture nominee punch with Manchester by the Sea, I expect Netflix to go more aggressive with it’s theater plan, but will the movie be caught cannibalizing its audience?

-With Moonlight managing to win Best Picture last year and the Academy’s membership continuing to change, I decided to throw caution to the wind in these first predictions and predict lots of weird stuff, like The Shape of Water and Get Out. If the Academy doesn’t default, we might have a decent field.

Picture
Call Me By Your Name
The Current War
The Darkest Hour
Detroit
Dunkirk
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
Logan Lucky
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

Director
Michael Gracey, The Greates Showman
Alfonso Gomez-Rejon, The Current War
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Steven Soderbergh, Logan Lucky
Joe Wright, The Darkest Hour

Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Claire Foy, Breathe
Jennifer Lawrence, Mother!
Rooney Mara, Mary Magdalene
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Marshall
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Channing Tatum, Logan Lucky

Supporting Actress
Riley Keough, Logan Lucky
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Naomi Watts, The Glass Castle
Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman

Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, Marshall
Daniel Craig, Logan Lucky
Zac Efron, The Greatest Showman
Michael Shannon, The Current War
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name

Original Screenplay
Darkest Hour
Detroit
Logan Lucky
Get Out
Three Billboards…

Adapted Screenplay
The Beguiled
Call Me By Your Name
The Glass Castle
Mudbound
The Snowman

Film Editing
Darkest Hour
Detroit
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Breathe
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water

Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water

Costumes
The Beguiled
The Darkest Hour
The Greatest Showman
Murder on the Orient Express
Wonderstruck

Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
The Shape of Water

Score
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mother!
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Detroit
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Sound Mixing
Blade Runner 2049
Detroit
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Visual Effects
Blade Runner
Ghost in the Shell
Justice League
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War of the Planet of the Apes