We are only a few days away from the Oscar nominations being announced and I, for one, am relieved. I am over this awards season and want a talking point other than what will get nominated. This set of Oscar predictions was very interesting to make because there are actually so many ways the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences could go. I have tried to anticipate every avenue but it’s hard. So anyways, here are my final set of Oscar predictions and analysis.

  • I think we are set to get 7 nominations for Best Picture. This new sliding scale rewards passion votes and I think the films listed will not want for #1 votes. If we go past that, I’ve ranked the films in terms of who’s next.
  • We recently broke down the case for the four major Best Picture contenders on the Ramblin On podcast and the films are well represented here. You leader in the clubhouse is Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri as it has picked up nominations in many key places like DGA and most shockingly, Best Cinematography at BAFTA.
  • The movies most helped by the guilds: Get Out and I, Tonya. I say the former because everyone has been doubting the candidacy of this film since it came out and it has hit everywhere it needs to for broad industry support. It was THE film of 2017. I, Tonya is doing surprisingly well and its very showy, so it could pop up well in the Techs.
  • I am glad I never hopped on the James Franco train, cause even though it broke late, his misconduct scandal is going to drastically affect his chances at getting nominated.
  • Categories I’m most “stressed” about: Director, VFX, Original Screenplay. Director in particular is a mess because the DGA 5 almost never is the Oscar 5 but it looks too perfect to not predict.

Final Oscar Predictions

Picture
Predicted Nominees: 7
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

If more than 7…
The Post
I, Tonya
Mudbound

Director
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Martin McDonagh, Three Bilboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.

Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Sthulbarg, Call Me By Your Name

Original Screenplay
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
Three Billboards outside of Ebbing, Missouri

Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Wonder

Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Costumes
Beauty and the Beast
I, Tonya
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Wonder Woman

Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
I, Tonya

Score
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wonder Woman

Sound Mixing
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Okja
The Shape of Water
War of the Planet of the Apes

Original Song
“Evermore” – Beauty and the Beast
“Visions of Gideon” – Call Me By Your Name
“Remember Me” – Coco
“This is Me” – The Greatest Showman
“Mighty River” – Mudbound

Animated Feature
The Big Bad Fox & Other Tales
The Breadwinner
Coco
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Documentary
Chasing Coral
City of Ghosts
Faces Places
Jane
Strong Island

Foreign Language
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
Foxtrot (Israel)
In the Fade (Germany)
Loveless (Russia)
The Square (Sweden)