Ah August, the month when summer begins to dwindle away and the Oscar race starts to take some semblance of a form. It still feels like the wild wild West with regards to what could possibly end up in the lineup but with each passing month, and new trailer, we can at least get a better understanding of what the race could potentially look like. Here are my Oscar predictions and analysis.
Analysis
Moving Up
–American Hustle, in a big way. Did you all see that wonderful trailer they just released for the film? Not that this means anything regarding the film’s quality but there have been few trailers this year that were this much fun. I mean with Lawrence and Adams just slinking around owning the screen in those costumes to the ripped from the headlines intrigue of the true story, I could see this being a huge awards player.
–12 Years a Slave, also benefitting from a strong trailer and that Toronto Film Festival placement have gained a few categories and I’ve moved McQueen into the final director slot for now.
-Margo Martindale manages to get the last Supporting Actress spot, though Lawrence is hot on her heels.
-Cate Blanchett also storms her way to the #2 slot in Best Actress based on some overwhelming praise she’s been receiving for Blue Jasmine.
Moving Out
-Sally Hawkins chances dwindle the more people talk about Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine.
-Paul Greengrass in Director and Berenice Bejo in Actress were two of the hardest people to remove from my predixs. But it had to be done.
Miscellaneous Thoughts
-How fucking awful does the Animated Feature category look? I mean it just feels like there isn’t a single great movie in contention, it’s all sequels and snoozefest titles. Where are the ParaNormans or The Fantastic Mr. Foxes?
-Original Score doesn’t look too spectacular either, especially considering they will probably ignore the two best scores from the first half of the year (Oblivion and Monsters University).
-Bruce Dern is hanging onto his spot in supporting by a thread given the word is they are campaigning him lead. With Redford in the running, will there be any kind of room for another gentleman of a certain age?
-So I saw the trailer for The Monuments Men and while it has made it into some new categories, that trailer does not inspire much confidence. Hence why it’s not in editing or director yet.
-You’ll notice that Rush is currently located in editing and sound mixing, two spots that could easily be taken by The Monuments Men. However sometimes Oscar gets in the mood for well made, entertaining films like this in the technical categories and they do enjoy Ron Howard in drama mode…