The Toronto Film Festival is over, giving us a brief respite before the next festival, New York Film Festival and the race has started to take shape. 12 Years a Slave has all but ran away with the buzz and won the Audience Award, overwhelming other movies in terms of praise and is looking locked and loaded for some nominations. But can it win? ANd what does the film outlook show us given all the films that have now been seen? Let’s dig in with a new set of Oscar Predictions.
Moving Up
-Rush, which has gotten some really solid reviews from Venice and TIFF, bumps out The Counselor as the #10 Best Picture. I also put it in a few more tech categories like Cinematography and Sound Editing.
-12 Years a Slave moves up to either #1 or #2 in many of the cetegories it’s nominated in (except for Costume Design). Though I don’t think it will win Best Picture on account of it being super difficult to sit through, but the fact that no one seems to hate it definitely means it should be high on the list. Also, the Audience Award win in my mind says way more about it’s Best Picture chances than the critics.
-Jared Leto and Lupita N’yongo are getting raves alongside their very famous costars and have managed to make their first appearance in my predictions.
Moving Out
-Kidman bumped out for Grace of Monaco. The actress race is too crowded for this film with no buzz taking up a slot
-The Counselor is almost completely out of my predictions due to the non-existent buzz for the flick. I think Diaz could still get in if the part is showy enough, but the film will have to be great to get back on my predicts.
Miscallaneous
-Can anyone make out the Foreign lanugage film race? Good grief does it feel ridiculously complicated this year. Gloria and Wadjda have been praised to the high heavens recently so they seem safe bets.
-Am I crazy for not believing that Sandra Bullock will be nommed for Gravity or that Redford will win Actor? Those are two picks that many of my colleagues have that I just cannot understand nor see the Academy going for them. But stranger things have happened.
-The original score category is still a mess.
-There are so many films in contention, I’d venture too many to count. It’s insane that no one has yet to see Foxcatcher, American Hustle, The Wolf of Wall Street, Saving Mr. Banks, or any of the number of seemingly big Oscar players that everyone is ignoring in their analysis. Will there be room for everything?