So we have reached the halfway point of the film year, therefore Oscar predictions start to morph into the blood sport they usually are. I’ve already given my opinion on the film year so far, but I thought it was time to revisit the Oscar predictions.
Moving Out
–Foxcatcher from all categories. It doesn’t have a release date or a distributor so for now, it’s getting the boot.
–Pacific Rim is not tracking well and I can just see the Academy not nominating the visual effects in favor of something like The Great Gatsby and in the sound categories for a blockbuster like The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.
-The buzz for Labor Day has been muted at best so it gets bumped out of the predictions as well
-Given that Hanks is probably going supporting in Saving Mr Banks, I had to remove Collin Farrell from my predictions. In his place? Jeremy Renner for American Hustle.
Moving In
–Fruitvale Station has been building a ton of buzz so I’ve added it to Best Picture lineup
–Before Midnight has also been added to the adapted screenplay lineup. I have a hard time believing it will make Best Picture but who knows what could happen.
-That 5th actor slot is so volatile at this point that I didn’t know who to put there really, so for now I want to see how Robert Redford feels in that spot.
–The Wolf of Wall Street picks up some tech nods in Cinematography and Costume Design.
Other Thoughts
–Saving Mr Banks and 12 Years a Slave keep getting edged out of categories for easier to nominate fare. Will that happen come Oscar time?
-I wonder what kind of mood Oscar will be in cause there is a lot of youth vying for noms and they aren’t well known for recognizing it
-That 5th slot for Adapted Screenplay is looking rough.
-Also, it might be foolish of me to predict Lubezki for the cinematography win, but he’s in the right film to finally take the prize (big budget spectacle film with CGI and an auteur director).